Determination of emergencies probability at hydraulic structures

Abstract

Purpose. Analyze the methods for determining the risk of hydrodynamic accidents on hydraulic structures of various types (reservoirs, sludge storage, technical reservoirs, etc.). Substantiate the main directions for improving the system of ensuring the safety and reliability of hydraulic structures.

Methods. The method of theoretical analysis of literary sources was applied in assessing the regulatory and legal framework of the Central Asian countries in the field of ensuring the safety of hydraulic structures of various types. The processing of the obtained results is carried out using the method of estimation and theoretical generalization of the data obtained.

Findings. It has been established that the existing methods for assessing the risk of emergencies at hydraulic structures of various types (reservoirs, sludge storage, technical reservoirs, etc.) are complex, cumbersome and laborious to use due to the lack, inaccuracy and uncertainty of the initial data. In this regard, it is required to develop a methodology for assessing the risk of emergencies at hydraulic structures, taking into account their design features.

Application field of research. The research results can be used for a comprehensive assessment of the state of hydraulic structures of the Ministry of Natural Resources, as well as the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the development of medium and long-term forecasts of emergencies.