Areas of Siberia where in 1979–2024 variations in monthly Precipitation amounts are significantly associated with changes in the state of El Niño–the Southern Oscillation anticipatory of these amounts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2025.9-3.359Keywords:
Siberia, monthly precipitation, El Niño – Southern Oscillation, fire hazard according to weather conditionsAbstract
Purpose. Interannual changes in monthly amounts of atmospheric precipitation falling in any territory during the fire-hazardous season and in the months preceding it are significant factors of fire hazard based on weather conditions. Therefore, identifying processes in the climate system of our planet that significantly influence this process in the territories of the regions of Russia located in Siberia is a pressing problem of climatology and safety in emergency situations. One of such processes may be El Niño – Southern Oscillation. The state of this process is usually characterized by a number of global climate indices, among which the most informative is Nino 3-4.
Methods. To test the hypothesis of the work, a method based on correlation analysis of the connections between the processes under consideration was used. When assessing the significance of the identified connections, the Student criterion was used.
Findings. A hypothesis has been put forward about the existence of areas in Siberia where changes in monthly precipitation amounts in certain months are significantly associated with variations in the Nino 3-4 index, which precede it in time. The obtained results show that for all months from March to October, as well as for December, the studied relationships are significant for many areas of the territory of Siberia, if the changes in the index under consideration are ahead of the variations in the monthly amounts of atmospheric precipitation falling on them by 1 and 2 months. The total area of such areas located in the south of Siberia, as well as in Kazakhstan, China and Mongolia, is maximum in December. Similar areas have been identified in the territories related to the Taiga landscape zone. The latter indicates that the influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation process on the dynamics of fire danger by weather conditions in such areas is significant.
Application field of research. The obtained results indicate the possibility of their practical application in modelling and forecasting of changes in fire danger under weather conditions on the territories of many regions of Siberia.
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