Preparation of civil defense measures based on the analysis of distributions of forecast indicators of possible situation

Authors

  • Natal'ya V. Shamukova State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25, Minsk, 220118, Belarus
  • Sergey S. Bordak State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25, Minsk, 220118, Belarus

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2019.3-2.195

Keywords:

civil defense, planning of civil defense measures, means of destruction, advance preparation of civil defense, law of random value distribution, Pearson's chi-square test

Abstract

Purpose. Development of methodological approaches to the preparation of measures of civil defense.

Methods. Induction, deduction, analysis and synthesis methods were used. Theoretical approaches to theory of the distribution of extreme values.

Findings. The article presents an approach to the formation of the initial data necessary for civil defense planning. The sequence of checking the adequacy of the selected function to describe the predictive indicators of the situation in the event of the destruction of objects located on its territory when using weapons, and calculating their total numerical values is outlined. A description of the experiment, the results obtained, as well as practical recommendations for their use.

Application field of research. Further researches in this area will allow distributing the available resources of forces and means of civil protection differentially, planning sufficient and economically adaptive measures of civil protection, and promote the decrease in risk level, economic damage, harm for life and human health, as well as reduce the harm to the environment.

Conclusions. The analysis of the distribution of indicators using the distributions of extreme values makes it possible for government agencies to predict the possible situation that may arise in case of of the destruction of objects. In contrast to the law of normal distribution, the graphs of functions of extreme values allow us to predict the numerical values of the indicators, which differ from the average value in the sample.

Author Biographies

Natal'ya V. Shamukova, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25, Minsk, 220118, Belarus

Chair of Natural Sciences, Associate Professor; PhD in Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor

Sergey S. Bordak, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25, Minsk, 220118, Belarus

Chair of Civil Protection, Senior Lecturer

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Published

2019-05-10

How to Cite

Shamukova Н. and Bordak С. (2019) “Preparation of civil defense measures based on the analysis of distributions of forecast indicators of possible situation”, Journal of Civil Protection, 3(2), pp. 195–205. doi: 10.33408/2519-237X.2019.3-2.195.