On forecasting fire situation related to technogenic emergencies in the Republic of Belarus: approaches and problems

Authors

  • Mikhail M. Tatur Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics; 220013, Belarus, Minsk, ul. P. Brovki, 6
  • Aleksandr G. Ivanitskiy State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1219-962X
  • Vyacheslav M. Prorovskiy Research Institute of Fire Safety and Emergencies of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus; 220046, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Soltysa, 183a https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6819-1611

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2020.4-3.237

Keywords:

technogenic emergency situation, fire, forecast, exploration analysis, multifactor model, fire statistic

Abstract

Purpose. To determine the structure of the main factors affecting the situation with fires in settlements, to forecast their occurrence in the territories of the administrative-territorial units of the Republic of Belarus, to assess the possibility of using the results obtained earlier by other researchers.

Methods. Exploration analysis, synthesis, modeling, systems approach, monitoring, matching, measurement.

Findings. A base of basic input data has been assembled, an initial exploration analysis has been carried out, and the applicability of some published forecast models has been evaluated.

Application field of research. The obtained results are necessary to solve the problem of forecasting the occurrence of fires and calculating the values of fire risks.

Author Biographies

Mikhail M. Tatur, Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics; 220013, Belarus, Minsk, ul. P. Brovki, 6

Chair of Electronic Computing Machines, Professor; Grand PhD in Technical Sciences, Professor

Aleksandr G. Ivanitskiy, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25

Chair of Fire Safety, Senior Lecturer; PhD in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Vyacheslav M. Prorovskiy, Research Institute of Fire Safety and Emergencies of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus; 220046, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Soltysa, 183a

Department of Statistics and Analysis, Head of Department

References

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Published

2020-07-20

How to Cite

Tatur М. М. ., Ivanitskiy А. Г. and Prorovskiy В. М. (2020) “On forecasting fire situation related to technogenic emergencies in the Republic of Belarus: approaches and problems”, Journal of Civil Protection, 4(3), pp. 237–250. doi: 10.33408/2519-237X.2020.4-3.237.

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