On forecasting fire situation related to technogenic emergencies in the Republic of Belarus: approaches and problems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2020.4-3.237Keywords:
technogenic emergency situation, fire, forecast, exploration analysis, multifactor model, fire statisticAbstract
Purpose. To determine the structure of the main factors affecting the situation with fires in settlements, to forecast their occurrence in the territories of the administrative-territorial units of the Republic of Belarus, to assess the possibility of using the results obtained earlier by other researchers.
Methods. Exploration analysis, synthesis, modeling, systems approach, monitoring, matching, measurement.
Findings. A base of basic input data has been assembled, an initial exploration analysis has been carried out, and the applicability of some published forecast models has been evaluated.
Application field of research. The obtained results are necessary to solve the problem of forecasting the occurrence of fires and calculating the values of fire risks.
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