Estimation of the probability of a call failure in a queuing system

Authors

  • Valentin N. Serezhkin State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, Mashinostroiteley str., 25 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2676-942X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-4.458

Keywords:

mathematical modeling, probability of failure, queuing system, matrix determinant

Abstract

Purpose. To obtain an estimate of the probability of failure to service a call for a non-stationary mode of operation of a queuing system with failures.

Methods. An operational method for solving systems of linear differential equations.

Findings. Expressions for estimating the probability of failure, depending on the intensity of the call flow λ and the intensity of service µ.

Application field of research. Modeling of operational and tactical activity of bodies and departments for emergency situations.

Author Biography

Valentin N. Serezhkin, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, Mashinostroiteley str., 25

Chair of Natural Sciences, Professor; PhD in Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor

References

Brushlinskiy N.N. Sistemnyy analiz deyatel'nosti Gosudarstvennoy protivopozharnoy sluzhby [System analysis of the activities of the State Fire Service]. Moscow: Moscow Institute of Fire Safety of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 1998. 255 p. (rus)

Khinchin, A.Ya. Matematicheskie metody teorii massovogo obsluzhivaniya [Mathematical methods of the queuing theory]. Trudy Matematicheskogo Instituta imeni V.A. Steklova, 1955. Vol. 49. Pp. 3–122. (rus). Url: http://mi.mathnet.ru/rus/tm/v49/p3.

Zhevnyak R.M., Karpuk A.A. Vysshaya matematika [Higher mathematics]: in 2 parts. Minsk: Vysheyshaya shkola, 1984–1988. Part 4. 1987. 240 p.

Ivchenko G.I., Kashtanov V.A., Kovalenko I.N. Teoriya massovogo obsluzhivaniya [Queuing theory]. Mоscоw: Vysshaya shkola, 1982. 256 p.

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Published

2021-11-22

How to Cite

Serezhkin В. Н. (2021) “Estimation of the probability of a call failure in a queuing system”, Journal of Civil Protection, 5(4), pp. 458–465. doi: 10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-4.458.