Entropy analysis of technogenic emergencies: methodology and practical application

Abstract

Purpose. This research aims to develop and test a methodology for entropy analysis to assess and predict technogenic emergencies. The study examines the theoretical foundations of entropy analysis, and identifies a set of key parameters and indicators used in this method. One of the objectives is to conduct a comparative analysis with traditional risk assessment methods and highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology.

Methods. The study employs systems analysis, entropy-based risk assessment, probabilistic-frequency analysis, and modeling and forecasting methods. Entropy analysis, based on the concept of measuring uncertainty and chaos in complex systems, allows for more accurate assessment of the likelihood of emergencies and prediction of their development.

Findings. The research demonstrates that the entropy approach has several advantages over traditional methods, such as greater flexibility and the ability to consider a wide range of risk factors. This method provides a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of technogenic disasters and significantly enhances the effectiveness of measures for their prevention and mitigation. The article also presents the results of applying the methodology to the case of the accident at Norilsk TPP-3, highlighting its practical significance.

Application field of research. The prediction and prevention of technogenic disasters in various industries, including energy, transport, and industrial production, is an important task that can be solved using the obtained data. This data can be used to optimize risk management, improve the safety and resilience of technogenic systems, as well as to develop standard methodologies and train specialists. The scientific and practical significance of the research lies in the creation of an effective tool for risk assessment and management under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity of modern technogenic systems. The application scope of the results emphasizes the importance of this research for various industries.