Experience of assessing the current seismological situation on the Uzbekistan territory by the complex of forecast parameters of seismic mode
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2020.4-3.265Keywords:
long-term earthquake forecast, seismic parameters, seismic activity, seismic gapAbstract
Purpose. The identification of regional patterns of the seismic process and the development of methods for long-term assessment of the seismological situation in Uzbekistan on their basis.
Methods. Prediction of the places of expected seismic activity in Uzbekistan in the coming years is based on the patterns of changes in the prognostic parameters of the seismic regime in the focal zones of strong earthquakes and the peculiarities of the manifestation of the totality of earthquakes within seismically active zones.
Findings. It was established that within the seismically active zones there are areas in which seismic activity at the level of strong earthquakes over the historical period of time was very high. These areas are considered potentially hazardous to earthquakes in the future. According to the number of anomalous signs that have appeared at the current time in various prognostic parameters of the seismic regime, the regions are ranked by the probability of the occurrence of strong earthquakes in the coming years.
Application field of research. The results of the studies are necessary for the development of anti-seismic measures in the Republic of Uzbekistan.
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