Совершенствование информационных систем о природных пожарах Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2023.7-1.86Ключевые слова:
природные пожары, информационная система, автоматизация вычислений, качество информации, изменение погодных условийАннотация
Цель. Достижение информационными системами о природных пожарах (ИСПП) Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации современного уровня (как по степени автоматизации вычислений, так и по качеству представляемой информации) в ситуации уже изменившихся и ожидаемых погодных условий.
Методы. Качественно новый результат предлагается получить путем внедрения передовых технологий, основанных на обработке разнородных данных (наземных, спутниковых и т.д.) за длительный период времени, – подхода больших данных.
Результаты. Проведен анализ функционирующих в настоящее время ИСПП показавший, что существующие ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации, основанные на разработанных в 50-х гг. XX в. комплексных метеорологических показателях и созданные отдельно друг от друга без единого видения облика системы, осуществляют прогнозный мониторинг пожарной опасности на недостаточном для современных условий уровне, существенно уступая зарубежным аналогам. Сформулированы предложения по совершенствованию ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации таким образом, чтобы они представляли собой комплексные системы, охватывающие полный цикл прогнозного мониторинга пожарной опасности: от предупреждения и подготовки к природным пожарам до анализа причиненного ими ущерба. Для более полного отражения картины пожарной опасности и учета особенностей изменившихся погодных условий предлагается перейти от комплексных метеорологических показателей Н.А. Диченкова (принят в Республике Беларусь) и В.Г. Нестерова (принят в Российской Федерации) к индексу пожарной опасности по метеорологическим условиям FWI (Fire Weather Index, FWI). Это также позволит гармонизировать оценку пожарной опасности на территории Республики Беларусь, Российской Федерации и прилегающих стран.
Область применения исследований. Изложенные предложения могут быть использованы при совершенствовании ИСПП Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации.
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