Methodological approach to forecasting and evaluating the situation to support decision-making on the organization of civil defense under the conditions of sabotage-terrorist impact

Authors

  • Sergey S. Bordak State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, Mashinostroiteley str., 25 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9157-3899

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-1.113

Keywords:

period of increasing military threat, civil defense management bodies, emergency-and rescue operations, civil defense formations, sabotage and terrorist impact

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the place and role of civil defense, taking into account the peculiarities of armed struggle in modern conditions. To propose a methodological approach to assessing and forecasting sabotage and terrorist impact on the objects of the economy, life support and infrastructure.

Methods. The known methods of formal logic, theory of operations research, theory of organization, operational-tactical calculations, historical-analytical method, general scientific (induction, deduction, analysis and synthesis) and special research methods, including methods specially developed by the author have been used for solving the problem under consideration.

Findings. The analysis of the features of modern armed confrontation, the place and role of civil defense in ensuring military security has been made. A methodological approach to assessing and forecasting sabotage and terrorist influence on objects of the economy, life support and infrastructure is proposed. The promising directions for further research in the field of civil defense organization have been identified.

Application field of research. The results of the study can be used in studies related to the organization of civil defense, in practical activities to carry out calculations necessary to support the decision-making by the head of a district (city) civil defense to carry out emergency rescue and other urgent work, as well as in the development of engineering and technical measures of civil defense and emergency prevention measures in the design documentation.

Author Biography

Sergey S. Bordak, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, Mashinostroiteley str., 25

Chair of Civil Protection, Senior Lecturer

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Published

2021-02-23

How to Cite

Bordak С. С. (2021) “Methodological approach to forecasting and evaluating the situation to support decision-making on the organization of civil defense under the conditions of sabotage-terrorist impact”, Journal of Civil Protection, 5(1), pp. 113–123. doi: 10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-1.113.