Evaluation of the effectiveness of civil defense measures in the elaboration of management decisions

Authors

  • Sergey S. Bordak State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9157-3899
  • Vadim A. Kovtun Gomel Branch of the State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 246023, Belarus, Gomel, sh. Rechitskoe, 65A https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9510-132X
  • Yuriy M. Pleskachevskiy Belarusian National Technical University; 220013, Belarus, Minsk, pr-t Nezavisimosti, 65 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5459-9835

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-2.241

Keywords:

civil defense, efficiency assessment, civil defense management bodies, system, operation, efficiency, uncertainty, management decision making

Abstract

Purpose. Develop an approach to formalize the assessment of the effectiveness of civil defense measures in the preparation of management decisions.

Methods. The well-known methods of efficiency theory, theory of operations research, probability theory and mathematical statistics, as well as general scientific methods (induction, deduction, analysis and synthesis) were used as a theoretical basis.

Findings. The analysis of the main literary sources in the field of assessing the effectiveness of complex systems. An approach has been developed to formalize the assessment of the effectiveness of civil defense measures in the preparation of management decisions based on the criterion for assessing the quality of the operation results.

Application field of research. The research results can be used in scientific research related to aspects of preparation and conduct of civil defense, as well as in the practical activities of chiefs and staffs of civil defense.

Author Biographies

Sergey S. Bordak, State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 220118, Belarus, Minsk, ul. Mashinostroiteley, 25

Chair of Civil Protection, Senior Lecturer

Vadim A. Kovtun, Gomel Branch of the State Educational Establishment «University of Сivil Protection of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus»; 246023, Belarus, Gomel, sh. Rechitskoe, 65A

Chair of Operational-tactical Activity and Technical Equipment, Professor; Grand PhD in Technical Sciences, Professor

Yuriy M. Pleskachevskiy, Belarusian National Technical University; 220013, Belarus, Minsk, pr-t Nezavisimosti, 65

Chair of Micro- and Nanotechnology, Head of Chair; Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Grand PhD in Technical Sciences, Professor

References

Kolmogorov A.N. Chislo popadaniy pri neskol'kikh vystrelakh i obshchie printsipy otsenki ef-fektivnosti sistemy strel'by [The number of hits with multiple shots and general principles for assessing the effectiveness of the firing system]. Proceedings of the Steklov Mathematical Institute: collection of articles on the theory of artillery fire. Moscow, Leningrad: Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1945. Pp. 7–25. (rus)

Ventcel' E.S. Vvedenie v issledovanie operatsiy [Introduction to operations research]. Moscow: Sovetskoe radio, 1964. 390 p. (rus)

Dobrov A.V. Osnovy teorii effektivnosti [Fundamentals of efficiency theory]: tutorial. Himki: Civil Defence Academy of Emercom of Russia, 2009. 136 p. (rus)

Petukhov G.B. Osnovy teorii effektivnosti tselenapravlennykh protsessov. Chast' 1 Metodologiya, metody, modeli [Fundamentals of the theory of the effectiveness of purposeful processes. Part 1 Methodology, methods, models]. Leningrad: Ministry of Defense of the USSR, 1989. 647 p. (rus)

Petukhov G.B., Yakunin V.I. Metodologicheskie osnovy vneshnego proektirovaniya tselenapravlennykh protsessov i tseleustremlennykh sistem [Methodological bases of external design of purposeful processes and purposeful systems]. Moscow: AST, 2006. 502 p. (rus)

Vinogradov V.A. Effektivnost' slozhnykh sistem. Dinamicheskie modeli [Effectiveness of complex systems. Dynamic models]. Moscow: Nauka, 1989. 288 p. (rus)

Habayeb A.R. Systems effectiveness. Irbid; Yarmouk University: Pergamon press, 1989. 447 p. DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-11076-0.

Morse P.M., Kimball G.E. Methods of operations research. Washington: National Defense Research Committee, 1946. 186 р.

Anureev I.I. Primenenie matematicheskikh metodov v voennom dele [Application of mathematical methods in military affairs]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1972. 254 p. (rus)

Zotov V.P. Teoreticheskie osnovy otsenki effektivnosti [Theoretical foundations of performance assessment]. Moscow: Military Academy named after F.E. Dzerzhinsky, 1969. 452 р. (rus)

Bordak S.S., Subbotin M.N. Podgotovka meropriyatiy grazhdanskoy oborony na osnove analiza riskov [Preparation of actions of civil defense on the basis of risk analysis]. Journal of Civil Protection, 2017. Vol. 1, No. 2. Pp. 223–231. (rus) DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2017.1-2.223.

Subbotin M.N., Bordak S.S. Meropriyatiya grazhdanskoy zashchity, obespechivayushchie zhivuchest' goroda v mirnoe i voennoe vremya [Measures of the Civil Defense providing the functioning of cities at peace and war period]. Vestnik Komandno-inzhenernogo instituta MChS Respubliki Belarus', 2016. No. 1 (23). Pp. 99–105. (rus)

Tikhonov M.M., Subbotin, M.N., Bordak, S.S. Perspektivy sozdaniya gosudarstvennoy sistemy grazhdanskoy zashchity [Perspectives of the creation of the state system of civil protection]. Journal of Civil Protection, 2018. Vol. 2. No. 3. Pp. 386–392. (rus). DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2018.2-3.386.

Lasuta G.F., Karpilenya N.V., Bulva A.D. Metodika ranzhirovaniya organizatsiy v interesakh grazhdanskoy oborony s ispol'zovaniem metoda analiza ierarkhiy [Ranking methodology of organizations for benefit of civil defense using the method of hierarchies]. Journal of Civil Protection, 2019. Vol. 3, No. 3. Pp. 301–313. (rus). DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2019.3-3.301.

Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Ekspertnye otsenki [Expert assessments]. Moscow: Nauka, 1973. 161 p. (rus)

Borisov N.N., Levchenko A.S. Metody otsenki resheniy: elementy analiza [Decision Evaluation Techniques: Elements of Analysis]. Riga: RPI, 1980. 189 p. (rus)

Kuz'menko Yu.M. [et al.]. Metody analiza i obrabotki voenno-ekonomicheskoy informatsii [Methods of analysis and processing of military-economic information]. Moscow: Nauka, 1978. 115 p. (rus)

Thurstone L.L. The Measurement of Values. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959. 322 р.

Downloads


Abstract views: 61
PDF Downloads: 82

Published

2021-05-25

How to Cite

Bordak С. С., Kovtun В. А. and Pleskachevskiy Ю. М. (2021) “Evaluation of the effectiveness of civil defense measures in the elaboration of management decisions”, Journal of Civil Protection, 5(2), pp. 241–250. doi: 10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-2.241.

Most read articles by the same author(s)