Development of complex forecast monitoring system of the factors, characterizing the fire danger of the territory of the Republic of Belarus with use of satellite and ground data

Abstract

Purpose. Article is devoted to the development of complex forecast monitoring system of the factors, characterizing the fire danger of the territory of the Republic of Belarus with use of satellite and ground data. The results of the work of the created forecast monitoring system will allow to increase the efficiency of preventive measures aimed at reducing the consequences of natural fires.

Methods. In order to obtain a qualitatively new result an approach of «Big data», including static (relatively slowly changing in time) data, traditional ground information from meteorological stations and satellite data over a long period of time, is applied. An important feature of the «Big data» approach used in forecast monitoring system development is the flexibility i.e. a possibility to add, change, introduce new factors, complex indicators and indexes of fire danger.

Findings. Development of the forecast monitoring system of the factors characterizing the fire danger of the territory was the beginning of a new forecast stage in the development of mechanisms of response to natural and technogenic emergency situations in the Republic of Belarus.

Application field of research. The forecast monitoring system can be integrated into the existing activities on reducing the damage caused by emergency situations of natural and technogenic character. The expected economic effect of forecast monitoring of the factors characterizing the fire danger of the territory will be determined by the prevented damage from natural fires and reduction of costs (10–20 % according to the estimation of the Russian scientists) on the elimination of their consequences due to timely taken measures.

Conclusions. The approach applied at the development of the forecast monitoring system provides: flexibility (possibility to add, change, introduce new factors, complex indicators and indexes of fire danger), dynamism (taking into consideration the change of a condition of surface combustible materials within a day), detail (up to spatial resolution of satellite data used for calculation the indexes of vegetation condition) and availability (results of forecast monitoring can be available for users by means of remote access service). It should be noted, however, that the remote forecast monitoring system is at the beginning of the development, and its introduction into the operational mode re-quires considerable efforts.