Calibration of the model of the geoinformation system «Extremum» for estimating earthquake losses
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33408/2519-237X.2021.5-4.427Keywords:
automated information and control system, GIS «Extremum», reliability of operational estimates of losses, Kaliningrad earthquake, macroseismic fieldAbstract
Purpose. Updating the information content of the automated information and control system (AICS) of the unified state system for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations (RSChS) of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia to improve the reliability of seismic risk assessments and operational estimates of earthquake losses in order to ensure the safety of the population.
Methods. The study of the influence of the features of seismic intensity attenuation on the estimates of earthquake losses in the Eastern Baltic territories was carried out by calibrating the parameters of the macroseismic field and simulation modeling using the system «Extremum».
Findings. Examples of successful use of the results of the calibration of the macroseismic field for a retrospective assessment of the consequences of the Kaliningrad earthquake on September 21, 2004 and the prediction of consequences in the case of a stronger event with Mmax = 5.0–5.5 in the Eastern Baltic area are given. Acceptable estimates of the modeling error have been obtained for the case of operational assessment of losses from strong earthquakes. The effectiveness of periodic calibration of models of the system «Extremum» using data collected by means of AICS and obtained in the research of scientific organizations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, including the Federal Research Center «Unified Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences» is shown.
Application field of research. The obtained results are of great practical importance and can be used in the assessment of seismic risk, as well as in the operational assessment of the consequences of earthquakes to increase the reliability of the predicted parameters of the possible situation, which affects the speed of decision-making and the effectiveness of rescuers' actions.
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